The gold price dumped to $4,137 on Friday, down $40 on the day in a $4,124–$4,226 whipsaw, after even a shockingly weak jobs report failed to spark a rally, Trading Economics data showed. Just 29,000 jobs, unemployment up to 4.2% and wages up only 0.1% sparked a brief pop above $4,200 - then sellers slammed it back to close near the lows, down more than 3% on the week in a second straight weekly loss, Kitco reported. The fade answered Friday morning's question, when gold clung to $4,170 into NFP: the bounce died anyway.
The week's arc was all downhill after Monday: $4,277.90 Sunday open, $4,280.56 weekly high, then rising yields, a near-two-month-high dollar and Iran-war oil inflation fears pinned gold down to a $4,110.95 pre-NFP low. An October hike is now off the table - but December is still priced in, GDP beat at 2.2%, and Fifth Third's Bill Adams says CPI, PPI, pump prices and geopolitics will sway the late-October Fed far more than this "lukewarm" report, Kitco reported - even with Brent back under $100 after the G7's 100M-barrel release.
Wall Street turns bearish as $4,000 looms
The weekly Kitco survey flipped: only 23% of 13 analysts bullish, 46% bearish, 31% neutral - and Main Street abandoned the bullish bias it held since July. "It's illogical... All the love is in equities right now," said Walsh Trading's Sean Lusk, warning rallies can't sustain: reacting "bearishly to bullish news" is "not good if you're long." Trade Nation's David Morrison sees a $4,000 retest first - then consolidation and "an explosive rally" - while FXTM's Lukman Otunuga calls $4,200 the pivot: above opens $4,280, below drags to $4,100, Kitco reported.
Gold price bulls' last hope: most hated setup since 2021
Deutsche Bank's Daniel Ghali says despair is the opportunity: the pullback is "incredibly limited," gold hasn't printed a new low since July despite 10-year yields over 5% and $100 oil, positioning is the most bearish since October 2021 while central banks buy at double the 2021 clip. "This is a really great time for gold," he told BNN Bloomberg - though he warns silver faces oversupply and copper, not gold, may deliver the biggest gains, Kitco reported. Next week's verdict comes from ISM Services, FOMC minutes and consumer sentiment.