The gold price is clinging to $4,170 heading into Friday's US jobs report, refusing to break after a brutal September selloff - but Bank of America just warned the calm won't last, with a slide to $3,750 and a break below $4,000 firmly in play this quarter. Spot gold traded near $4,169 an ounce on Friday, up 0.3% on the day, Trading Economics data showed - a modest steadying just days after gold crashed 3% in a single session.
Thursday's session set the tone: bullion firmed into the US close as October Fed rate-hike bets softened, with calmer jobless claims cooling the hot-PCE repricing that crushed metals earlier in the week, Kitco reported. Delhi added Rs 500 to Rs 1,49,800 per 10 grams and Dubai's 24K rate rose to AED 502 a gram - but the metal is still down nearly 2% on the week and 6.4% on the month, Times Now reported.
NFP day: the $4,000 line in the sand
Everything now hinges on September nonfarm payrolls, due later today. Natixis' Christopher Hodge says even a strong print won't necessarily force the Fed's hand - but it would reframe the CPI release in two weeks, Kitco reported. A hot number risks reviving hike bets and punching gold back toward $4,100; a miss could fuel the rebound toward $4,250 after gold's soft October open near $4,157.
Positioning is the tinder. Strategist Carley Garner calls the washout a tactical buying opportunity - while staying outright bearish and treating $4,500 as a ceiling, not a target, Kitco reported.
BofA sees gold price sliding to $3,750 in Q4
Bank of America - among the first to call $5,000 gold - now sees the metal averaging just $3,750 in the fourth quarter, with risks rising of a dip below $4,000. The culprit: the Iran war. If oil spiked to $150 on extended Middle East tensions, BofA estimates gold would average only $3,500 in 2027, Kitco reported.
The bank's warning is blunt: investors have "looked through" near-term headwinds in a "fragile equilibrium," and without a Middle East resolution, a rapid unwind of positioning could slam gold lower fast. Worse, central banks - led by Turkey - already sold 60 tonnes in Q2 as high oil strained currencies, and BofA fears a repeat alongside retail ETF liquidation, the bank said. The stakes only rose after three tankers were struck in Hormuz this week.