Gold opened October near $4,157, flat on the day, after a wild Wednesday ride that summed up September's pain. Cooler-than-expected US PCE inflation briefly fired bullion to $4,211 - then a 30-year Treasury yield surge above 5.64% crushed the bounce and dragged it back toward $4,155, LiteFinance reported.
The month is officially in the books as a rout: gold closed September at $4,166.60, down 6.18% - pressured by energy-driven inflation and hawkish Fed voices pricing more tightening. It remains 7.8% higher than a year ago, a long way from January's all-time high of $5,608.35, TradingEconomics reported.
The PCE tease
For a few hours, the doves had it. August PCE printed headline +0.3% on the month (+3.4% year-on-year) and core +0.2% (+3.0%) - both below expectations even as consumer spending jumped 0.9%. October hike odds collapsed from about 70% to the low-40s, the dollar slipped off a two-month high, and spot gold jumped 0.73% to $4,211.70 while silver held $61.07, Kitco reported.
Before the data, gold had already reclaimed $4,200 intraday in European trading, recovering from the $4,110 seven-week low - though RSI near 41 warned the bounce was built on oversold fumes, not strength.
Then yields ruined everything
The relief lasted until the bond market spoke. The 30-year yield ripping past 5.64%, plus strong GDP and ADP jobs data, flipped gold 0.6% lower to $4,155. The daily chart still shows a live downtrend after gold failed to reclaim its bullish-wedge trendline. Bears want $4,100, then the year-to-date low at $3,941; bulls must retake the 100-day average at $4,287 for any real reversal, FXStreet reported.
The setup was already fragile going into the print: spot at $4,170.63, down 0.2%, with a stronger dollar taxing foreign buyers and futures at $4,201.90, CNBC reported.
Friday decides October
Next up: jobless claims, Fed speakers, then September nonfarm payrolls on Friday. A soft jobs print could do what PCE couldn't - crack yields and hand gold $4,238. A hot one reopens $4,100 and puts the $4,000 handle in play. Either way, October starts where the $4,177 stalemate left it: gold against the bond market, and the bond market is winning.