Gold reopened the week on the front foot, climbing back above $4,150 as softer bond yields and fading October rate-hike bets gave bulls their first green open in weeks. Spot gold traded near $4,159 an ounce in Asia on Monday, up about 0.5% from Friday's bruising close, Kitco data showed - a modest repair job after Friday's dump to $4,137 capped a 3% weekly loss.
The bounce has a clear fuel mix: cooler US Treasury yields, softer oil, and CME FedWatch pricing showing just 22.1% odds of an October hike - down sharply from the panic pricing that crushed metals in September, ET Now reported. Silver is riding along, up nearly 1% on the session.
A stronger dollar caps the bounce
Not everything is cooperating. The dollar is firm again, capping bullion's upside and reminding longs that every rally still gets sold until the Fed's late-October meeting passes. Gold held a $4,132-$4,164 overnight range - perched just above the $4,100-$4,135 demand zone traders are watching, with the first supply wall at $4,152 and heavier offers at $4,167 and $4,199, TradingView positioning data shows.
India steadies near Rs 1.5 lakh
Retail markets are stabilising with spot. India's 24-carat gold rate held near Rs 1,49,700 per 10 grams on Monday, with 18-carat at Rs 1,11,800, Financial Express reported, as the MCX reopened after the weekend. A weaker rupee near record lows continues to keep local prices elevated even when global spot dips.
What decides gold's week
The calendar is loaded: ISM Services, FOMC minutes and consumer sentiment all land this week, each a potential trigger for the December-hike repricing that now matters more than October. Below, $4,100 and then the psychological $4,000 magnet. Above, $4,167-$4,199 decides whether this is a real recovery or just another Monday head-fake in a bearish 4H structure.