Malaysia’s September palm oil stocks could exceed the 3.22 million-tonne record set in December 2018 when the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) publishes its monthly report at 12:30 p.m. Kuala Lumpur time on Monday, Oct. 12. Two market surveys put the possible total between 3.37 million and 3.45 million tonnes, but the figures remain estimates until MPOB reports them.
A preview carried by Futu, citing a Reuters survey, put end-September inventories at 3.37 million tonnes, up 19.5% from August. The Straits Times, citing a Bloomberg survey, reported a higher median estimate of 3.45 million tonnes, a 22% increase. The MPOB release calendar lists September production, stocks, exports and imports for Monday at 12:30 p.m.
The forecasts imply stocks 150,000 to 230,000 tonnes above the previous peak. MPOB’s August data, reported by Bernama, put total inventories at 2.82 million tonnes, up 7.48% from July. A further jump would extend the build that began in April, even as traders wait to see whether export demand improves.
Production Is Outrunning Shipments
Both surveys point to a sharp September output increase and weaker exports, although their estimates differ. The Reuters survey cited by Futu projected crude palm oil production up 15.7% month on month to 2.1 million tonnes, with exports down 7.3% to 1.2 million tonnes. The Bloomberg survey cited by The Straits Times estimated output at 2.11 million tonnes, up 16%, and shipments at 1.13 million tonnes, down about 12%.
These are separate polls, not competing official readings. Their common signal is that harvest-season production may have risen faster than shipments. If exports do not absorb more of the oil, the surplus remains in domestic tanks. The official report will also show imports and the split between crude and processed palm oil stocks, helping traders judge where the build is concentrated.
What a Record Could Mean for CPO
A stocks figure at or above the survey range would reinforce the near-term supply overhang and could weigh on Bursa Malaysia’s nearby crude palm oil futures, especially if MPOB confirms that exports fell. The price response will depend on the gap between the official numbers and expectations. A record that matches what traders already anticipate may draw less selling than a surprise increase.
CPO futures fell in Friday’s session after Malaysia’s Budget 2027 omitted an expected export-duty waiver. BullBuzz’s Friday market report covers the move. The December 2026 contract closed at RM4,592 per tonne, down RM69 on the day but up RM57 over the week, Bernama reported. Interband Group trader Jim Teh forecast RM4,200 to RM4,300 next week, while Iceberg X’s David Ng gave a higher RM4,500 to RM4,750 range. The wide gap reflects uncertainty before MPOB’s stock and export figures; neither range is a guaranteed floor or ceiling.
A materially lower reading than 3.37 million tonnes could soften the bearish case, particularly if exports or domestic use prove stronger than the surveys suggest. That could prompt a short-covering bounce, but one month of data would not by itself show that inventories have begun a sustained decline. Traders will compare total stocks with the crude and processed components and check MPOB’s revisions to August figures.
Demand Could Offer a Counterweight
Price-sensitive buyers have recently faced Malaysian palm oil at a premium to Indonesian supplies, while some importing markets hold large edible-oil inventories, according to analysts cited by Bloomberg. That combination has limited Malaysia’s export share. The Straits Times also reported that Indian purchases picked up ahead of Deepavali, with more than 200,000 tonnes bought in recent days after import-duty cuts. Sustained shipments would help draw down stocks, but a brief burst of buying may not be enough to offset peak-season output.
Production usually eases after its seasonal peak, which could slow the build later in the year. Risks to future yields from El Niño and Indonesia’s biofuel demand are longer-term supports, not proof of an immediate supply shortage. Near-term trading can also react to soybean-oil futures, the ringgit and crude prices; BullBuzz has tracked recent crude-price weakness, which can reduce palm oil’s appeal as a biodiesel feedstock.
What CPO Traders Should Watch Monday
- Total stocks: compare MPOB’s figure with the 3.37 million-tonne Reuters estimate and 3.45 million-tonne Bloomberg median.
- Production and exports: check whether output reached the projected 2.1 million tonnes while shipments slowed.
- Stock composition and local use: crude versus processed inventories and domestic disappearance can explain why the total moved.
- Market reaction: watch nearby futures alongside competing vegetable oils, the ringgit and crude prices.
Monday’s release will establish whether Malaysia’s September stockpile broke the 2018 high and whether export weakness or stronger production drove the change. Until then, 3.37 million to 3.45 million tonnes are survey estimates, not confirmed MPOB data.