Oil snapped back on Wednesday after US President Donald Trump denied he is willing to ease sanctions on Iran. Brent crude futures climbed $1.14, or 1.11%, to $103.73 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate gained 34 cents to $89.72, reversing the previous session's supply-driven slide, Reuters reported.
Trump was responding to an Axios report - citing US officials - that he would offer Tehran sanctions relief and release frozen Iranian funds in exchange for concrete steps on its nuclear programme. "This is untrue. I offered them NOTHING," he wrote on Truth Social. The November Brent contract, expiring Wednesday, rose 71 cents to $103.30, while Qatar pressed on with shuttle diplomacy between Washington and Tehran, Arab News reported.
A 14% September
The month is ending with a bang. Brent is on track for a roughly 14% September gain - its biggest monthly climb since July - while WTI heads for about 4% after breaching $106 earlier this month for the first time since May. The Brent-WTI spread stretched to its widest in four months as traders weighed possible US curbs on diesel exports, with Trump reportedly considering red-dyed diesel sales instead of an outright ban to calm pump prices before November's midterms, HDFC Sky reported.
"Continued uncertainty over sanctions relief and negotiations is keeping a geopolitical risk premium embedded in prices," said SS WealthStreet's Sugandha Sachdeva. Recovering Hormuz flows have eased some pressure, but logistics remain "expensive and constrained," MST Marquee's Saul Kavonic added, Reality Tea reported.
Supply heals while diplomacy stalls
The physical market keeps mending underneath the headlines. Middle East crude exports rebounded to 16.328 million barrels per day in September - the highest since the US-Israeli war with Iran began in late February - and Saudi Arabia resumed tanker loadings at Yanbu after restarting its East-West pipeline. That recovery drove the slide to $103 that gave Asia its first green day in three sessions.
J.P. Morgan estimates regional exports are now just 11% below pre-war levels - "a remarkable recovery for a region still at war" - with the 10-day average at 20.5 million barrels a day, or 89% of 2025 levels. US crude stocks rose 1.02 million barrels last week per API data, with official EIA figures due later Wednesday.
What breaks the stalemate
Qatar says it is exchanging messages between the two sides and working toward common ground. Until something concrete emerges, every Truth Social post is a price event: improving supply caps the upside, but any escalation reopens the road to $107 and beyond.